Key Trends: The steel industry is reaching a turning point. Market data shows a profound adjustment in product structure, marking a historic shift. The output of hot-rolled rebar (construction steel), which long held the top position in production, has declined significantly, while hot-rolled wide steel strip (industrial steel) has become the largest product, reflecting the shift in China’s economic momentum from real estate to manufacturing. Background: In the first 10 months, national crude steel output was 818 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%; the average steel price index was 93.50 points, a year-on-year decrease of 9.58%, indicating the industry is in a phase of “declining volume and price.” Industry Consensus: The old path of scale expansion is over. At the Steel Supply Chain Conference hosted by Ouye Cloud Commerce, Fei Peng, Vice General Manager of China Baowu Steel Group, pointed out: “The old path of scale expansion is no longer viable. Steel companies must shift to high-quality development centered on high-end, intelligent, green, and efficient operations.” Policy Guidance: During the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, the task of enterprise development has upgraded from simply expanding output to becoming stronger and developing distinctive characteristics.
Market Data: Inventory Continues to Decline, Supply-Demand Imbalance Eases Slightly
1. Total Steel Inventory Down 2.54% Week-on-Week
* The total steel inventory in 135 warehouses across 38 cities nationwide was 8.8696 million tons, a decrease of 231,100 tons from the previous week.
* Significant destocking in construction steel: inventory 4.5574 million tons, down 3.65% week-on-week; hot-rolled coil inventory 2.2967 million tons, down 2.87% week-on-week; cold-rolled coated steel inventory increased slightly by 0.94%.
2. Steel Prices Rebound Slightly, Cost Support Weakens
* Last week, the average price of rebar was 3317 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton week-on-week; the average price of hot-rolled coil was 3296 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan week-on-week.
Industry Trends: Green Transformation
• Raw Material Divergence: Shagang lowered its scrap steel purchase price by 30-60 yuan/ton, iron ore prices remained firm, while coking coal prices weakened, resulting in varying levels of cost support.
3. Continued Production Contraction
Shandong plans to cultivate three steel enterprises with a capacity of 10 million tons each.
• The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.19%, a decrease of 0.62 percentage points month-on-month; the profit margin was only 37.66%, aiming to increase the proportion of coastal capacity from 53% to 65% within two years, promoting projects such as the second phase of the Shandong Iron and Steel Rizhao base, and building an advanced steel industry base.
• Global crude steel production in October was 143.3 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9%; China’s production was 72 million tons, a sharp year-on-year decrease of 12.1%, becoming the main reason for the global production reduction. Breakthrough in Green Standardization: The EPD platform for the entire steel industry chain has released 300 Environmental Product Declaration reports, providing support for the industry’s carbon footprint accounting and international competitiveness.
Shagang’s High-End Silicon Steel Project Fully Commences Production: The successful hot commissioning of the CA8 unit marks the completion of the first phase of the 1.18 million-ton-per-year high-quality silicon steel project, primarily producing non-oriented silicon steel for electric vehicles.
Post time: Dec-25-2025